Pre-Owned Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction (Hardcover) 9780804136693

from Cecilturtle

Despite its under 300-pages, this book is dense with information both theoretical and practical. How do we think? What are our assumptions? Do we even understand the questions that are being posed? How can we go from the unknown to the known? What are some of the skills and talents required? How ...

from browner56

We live in a world full of forecasts. From predictions about the outcome of political elections to stock market movements to betting lines on sporting events to vaguely worded warnings on possible catastrophic global events, such as terrorist attacks or environmental disasters, we are routinely b...

from jhgreen

This book is an interesting summary of Philip Tetlock's work on how to improve forecasting accuracy. As he states in the book, we're all constantly making forecasts about life-changing issues such as job change, home purchase, marriage, and investments. Our forecasts are rarely precise enough to ...

from BookWallah

A wonderful government funded experiment to see if non-specialists could beat the Intelligence experts at predictions. Some of the takeaways: expertise can blind you; playing well with others (i.e. collaboration) really helps; ability to quantify things helps; fluid vs. static intelligence helps,...

from LTietz

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock is based on research, including The Good Judgment Project. I enjoyed this engaging book, especially the references to historic events, such as the Bay of Pigs. The book contained great information about what works and what does...